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Seahawks versus Packers: A Bettor’s Guide

By Justin Floor

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Whether you are a Seattle Seahawks fan or not, an argument can be made that it’s better to lose your initial wagers during the football season.

Why? Because early success often goes to one’s head and people arrogantly end up taking unnecessary risks that ultimately undermine long-term success.

RELATED: Seahawk Must Hold Firm on Chancellor Situation

With as straight a face as I can muster, I’m going with that argument after last week’s beating. It was a beating that not only included Seattle’s outright loss, but a beating topped off with a total that went way over the number that I intended.

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So many unusual things happened in Seattle’s loss that predicting this week’s outcome with any certainty is arguably a futile endeavor.

This Seahawk’s team is looking little like the one Pete Carroll led last season.

The defense gave up more 20-yard pass plays (8) than they normally do in a month. The run-heavy offense went hurry-up for much of the second half. Steven Hauschka mis-hit an overtime kickoff. The Seahawks seemed unrecognizable.

As a result, the Seahawks need to shake things up to try to get a positive outcome.

Instead of just looking at the game line or over/under total in this week’s clash Green Bay at Lambeau Field, we will seek out a couple proposition bets to give us an edge. A sampling of available wagers to make include:

  • Line: Green Bay -3.5, Over/Under 48.5 per our friends at MGM Mirage Las Vegas
  • Marshawn Lynch rushing yards Over/Under: 86.5
  • Aaron Rodgers passing yards Over/Under 267.5

The loss to St Louis and recent injuries to a couple of Packers has effectively changed my perspective about this game.

Expecting Seattle to beat St Louis and get jumped in Green Bay, I was prepared to pick the Packers to not only win this game but cover it.

The Packers have been looking forward to this game since the moment Russell Wilson hit Jermaine Kearse with a perfect throw to beat zero coverage. That pass ended last year’s NFC Championship Game and sent the Seahawks to their second straight Super Bowl.

It is the ultimate revenge game. From Golden Tate’s “Inaccurate Reception” to blowing a 19-7 4th quarter lead in last year’s playoff, the best player in the NFL is tired of losing to the Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers is too good to allow this to happen AGAIN, especially on his own field, right?

Until last week, I would have said yes. However, after the massive egg Seattle laid in (possibly) their last game played in St Louis, Missouri, my mind is changed.

I do not believe this team will play nearly as poorly as it did last week. Combined with a few debilitating injuries on Green Bay’s side, I am of the opinion that the Seahawks will either win this game or lose it by less than 3.5 points.

There are no Aaron Donalds, Robert Quinns or Michael Brockers on Green Bay’s defensive line. The shaky Seattle O-line will look less feeble this week, allowing the skilled players on offense to shine enough to be in this game all night long.

After giving up tons of ground yardage to Chicago last week, Green Bay enters this game without their now injured starting middle linebacker, Sam Barrington, leaving a suspect run defense even more susceptible to gashing.

That, to me, is the key to this game.

Seattle will have success running the ball with Marshawn Lynch, which leads to more efficient play action passes from Wilson. That also leads to more open space for Graham and Baldwin/Lockett to roam. Every minute Seattle holds on to the ball is a minute that Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you.

On offense for Green Bay, a late week injury to right tackle Brian Bulaga gives Seattle an enormous edge on that side of the line of the scrimmage. Michael Bennett is likely to feast on Bulaga’s replacement.

Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright can’t be worse in pass coverage than last week, and expect Kris Richard to dial the blitzes way back against Aaron Rodgers. He’s too good to fool or harass, but that allows the Seahawks to play the Cover 3 defense that is much more comfortable to them.

Rodgers will get them at times, thanks in large part to Kam Chancellor’s unexcused absence and also because Rodgers is just great at football. I expect the defense to play much more to their capability this week than last, and not having to chase Jordy Nelson around the field helps immensely. 

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Eddie Lacy will be a load to deal with, but the front seven of Seattle should be able to relegate him to an average night running the football.

Finally, while it can’t be counted on, the threat of a Tyler Lockett touchdown return via punt or kickoff could at the very least lead to favorable field position. That could allow the Seahawks to use the entire playbook and play loose on offense.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a last-minute, perfectly struck Steven Hauschka field goal giving the Seahawks a 27-26 victory!

To recap the wagering, each week we bet 100 credits on the Seahawks game. Last week we put 70 on the under and 30 on Seattle to cover. We are down 100 credits. Let’s get them back.

 60 credits on Marshawn Lynch OVER 86.5 yards rushing in the game.

30 credits on Seattle +3.5 points.

10 credits on Aaron Rodgers OVER 267.5 yards passing.

Season total- down 100 credits

Next: Poll: Best Seattle Seahawks Week One Moment

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