Mariners: Can Nelson Cruz Do It All Over Again?
By Ben Renner
Mariners 2017 Designated Hitter Nelson Cruz has been remarkably consistent in his last three seasons. Can we expect more of the same from him at age 36?
Mariners DH Nelson Cruz has hit at least 40 home runs in each of the last three seasons. When the Texas Rangers finally gave up on their late-blooming, coveted prospect after eight years, Cruz signed the MLB equivalent of a ‘prove it’ deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Cruz led the league with 40 home runs in his sole season in Mobtown in 2014. In his two years with Seattle after signing with the Mariners in 2015, Cruz has been even better, mashing 87 home runs in a Mariner uniform.
History tells us that at some point, even the greatest power hitters lose their bat speed, resulting in looping, hole-filled swings that draw poor contact if they touch the ball at all (see Griffey Jr., Ken, in 2010). The decline happens for different players at different times in their career, of course. For Griffey, it was around age 39 or 40 (not talking about injuries, just bat speed, contact ability, etc.) on his second tour with the Mariners. When will Cruz’s decline begin?
To his credit, there has been no sign of Cruz slowing down over the last three years. He’s been remarkably healthy as well. Here are his average season numbers over that span:
"155 Games Played91 Runs171 Hits42 Home Runs102 RBIs.902 On-Base Plus Slugging"
Cruz has been healthy and productive for the Orioles and Mariners, finally reaching his the full potential that the Texas Rangers saw in him a decade ago.
Presumably, with far fewer appearances in right field this year, Cruz will have a great chance to stay healthy yet again in 2017.
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Somehow, Cruz’s OPS rose after his lone season playing half his games at Camden Yards and he started hitting in the home run-suppressing Safeco Field more often. Looking at a few of his under-the-hood statistics on Fangraphs, I couldn’t find any trends from the last two years that would suggest a precipitous decline in 2017. His strikeout rate declined last year compared to 2015, his first season in Seattle, and his walk rate rose 0.3 percent. He hit .320 on balls in play last year, producing his .287 overall batting average. And that BABIP figure was down 30 points from the previous season. His ground ball/fly ball ratio and line drive percentage didn’t waver much from 2015 to 2016, either.
Expecting anyone not named Barry Bonds to hit 40 home runs in a season can lead to easy disappointment, but based on past performance, there’s no reason to think Cruz can’t reach another 40 home runs for the Mariners in 2017. Past performance isn’t always the best way to predict the future, but the Boomstick isn’t showing any signs of aging or a slower bat. If Spring Training is any indication, Cruz is ready to start the season with a vengeance. Here’s a three-run blast last Saturday.
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Cruz will turn 37 in July, but it appears he has plenty left in the tank. He’s projected for 33 to 38 home runs in 2017, but don’t be surprised if he reaches 40 yet again.