Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears: A Bettor’s Guide


Last Sunday, the Seahawks blew a 4th quarter lead for the third straight game! What can we expect this weekend?

Not only did they fall to a Green Bay Packers team without Jordy Nelson, Bryan Bulaga, Letroy Guion and Eddie Lacy, but managed to lose by double digits for the first time since November 6, 2011.

-= SEE ALSO: On Franklin Gutierrez and Free Agency =-

With it, the implosion also took another 100 of our credits as the ‘Hawks did not cover, Lynch ran for less than 86.5 yards and Rodgers passed for less yardage than needed to cash in.

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You’ve heard the saying “The third time’s the charm”, right? Well, we’re acutely in need of some of that Eli-Manning-in-the-playoffs type of improbable and inexplicable good fortune.

Enter this week’s challenge. The 0-2 Seahawks are a 15 point favorite versus the Chicago Bears. This is not the kind of spread I like to take on, especially when struggling early in the season.

Everyone on earth expects the Seahawks to reestablish order in the galaxy this week upon returning to the friendly confines of the C-Link and getting their locker room enforcer and stabilizer Kam Chancellor back in the fold.

It is assumed they will steamroll the hapless Bears and put an end to a chaotic start to the 2015 season. Be wary of these assumptions.

How many times have sports fans collectively agreed something was a lock to happen, only to watch as the improbable reveals itself before their very eyes? Happens all the time.

Those impressive-looking buildings in Las Vegas weren’t built by accident. They are the result of lots and lots of people plunking their money down on a “lock”, only to watch it be later used to purchase a new Michelangelo statue for a hotel lobby.

Are the Seahawks considerably better than the Bears? Yes. Is Seattle the healthier team entering the contest? Yes. Do they have home field advantage? Yes. All signs point to a drubbing, but laying 15 points in any NFL game should never be taken lightly.

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Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 2-14 and were widely accepted as the worst team in the league. They only lost 4 of those 14 games by 15 points or more. They were 10 point underdogs just last week in new Orleans and won the game.

Taking all this into account, I still expect the final result to surpass the point spread, for reasons that center around the fact that this team is 0-2, desperate for a win and hungry to rediscover its identity once again.

Seattle needs to get Russell Wilson in a groove.

The Bears defense has not sacked the quarterback yet this year and has given up 11 touchdowns in 2 games, 7 of them by air.

I expect Wilson to have more success passing this week to Jimmy Graham. That will open things up for Marshawn Lynch on the ground and make the read option more lethal.

On the other side of the ball, Seattle will not face Smokin’ Jay Cutler at Quarterback but will see a lot of Matt Forte and short passes from backup Quarterback Jimmy Clausen to Martellus Bennett. With Alshon Jeffery hobbled and possibly not even playing in the game, this will be a much worse version of Kansas City’s offense.

It is unlikely Chicago will be able to string together double-digit plays on their drives to score points this way. They’re going to have to hope for some lucky bounces of the ball and possibly pull out trick plays in a game where they do have the luxury of playing loose. They have nothing to lose in terms of risk-taking.

Considering the dearth of talent on the Bears roster, this feels like it could be another special opportunity for kick/punt returner Ty Lockett. Look for him to possibly pop one at some point.

In the end, I get the feeling the game will be well in hand late in the 4th quarter, but the spread will be in play until the final gun sounds. Seattle needs to score 35 points to comfortably cover the spread. I’m not sure they will get there.

The offense just isn’t good enough to impose that kind of dominance on anybody, even the shiftless Bears. If Lockett busts one or the defense scores, they can get to that number, but you can’t count on that happening.

I see this as a 27-10 or 30-10 type of game in the late stages with Chicago pushing to score a completely meaningless touchdown to give themselves something positive to take back home with them. It’s called a back door cover and it scares the heck out of me in a game with a 15 point spread. Be wary of this possibility.

Ultimately, I think the Seahawks use this game to right the ship and start to take back their persona of the neighborhood bully. Chicago is catching them at a really bad time and will play the role of sacrificial lamb on Sunday.

Prediction: Seattle 27, Chicago 10.

Wager: 100 credits on Seattle -15.

Next: Kam Chancellor Ends Holdout!

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