Mariners Second Half Outlook and Priorities

The Mariners will start the second half of the season tonight in the South Side of Chicago. What is their outlook for a Wild Card spot and what should their priorities be for the rest of 2017?

The Mariners are teetering on the brink of being essentially eliminated from playoff contention in 2017 after the All-Star Break. After finishing the final two weeks of the first half 4-10, they find themselves 17.5 games behind the American League West-leading Houston Astros and four games out of the second Wild Card playoff spot.

The Mariners are 43-47. The most they’ve ever trailed a division leader at the All-Star Break was 18 games in 1992 (when I was four). Thanks to the ridiculous one-game Wild Card playoff, however, the 2017 Mariners have a far better chance to reach the postseason than the pitiful 1992 team.

General Manager Jerry Dipoto is at a crossroads. He could choose to sell off a few players and build for 2018 and beyond, or he could take a shot at acquiring a pitcher or two to bolster their sorry pitching staff that has been decimated by injuries all season.

"If they’re serious about contending this year, they’ll need to replace Edwin Diaz with a more experienced closer and try to replace some of the inconsistent parts of the bullpen."

Will they make the playoffs for the first time since 2001? Will Dipoto sell and prepare for 2018? What should the Mariners do in the second half of 2017? Let’s take a look at some options.

The Mariners will need pitching to contend in 2017

The Mariners pitching staff overall ranks 10th in the American League in team ERA at 4.56. In order to be serious contenders for the playoffs, both their rotation and their bullpen need help. Their relievers have blown 13 saves in 29 attempts and allowed 49 home runs, tied for most in the AL with Minnesota.

They’ll need relief help. If they’re serious about contending this year, they’ll need to replace Edwin Diaz with a more experienced closer and try to replace some of the inconsistent parts of the bullpen. With other good teams bolstering their bullpens to become lines of closers and set-up men, they’ll have to compete in this arms’ race to climb the standings.

Sustained and improved health from James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, and Ariel Miranda will help the rotation, but to stack up with the six games ahead of them in the Wild Card race, they’ll need another arm in the rotation to even out their rotation.

Unfortunately, the most tradeable piece in the Mariners farm system is Tyler O’Neil, a promising 22-year-old outfielder for the Tacoma Rainiers who could be stuck behind the many outfielders already on the Major League roster. Even though Dipoto has said he will take on salary, trading O’Neil likely won’t be enough to restock the pitching staff to take a Wild Card slot.

Priority: Stock Up Arms for 2018

Dipoto may or may not be ready to sell off veterans this month to build for the future and punt on 2017. Either way, the Mariners need pitching to contend in the future. Whether Dipoto nibbles and sells off a few relievers and other minor pieces or uses the offseason again to replenish his system with usable arms is anyone’s guess.

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Dipoto might be tempted sell players who won’t be under club control beyond 2018. Center fielder Jarrod Dyson, an effective but aging outfielder and ‘speed guy,’ makes for a good trade piece. He’s on a one-year deal with Seattle, and while he’s a fan-favorite, he could make sense as an acquisition for a contending team and garner a decent return.

A strategy that Dipoto could employ to keep the Mariners core of Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Felix Hernandez together for at least one more year while stockpiling arms for a playoff run in 2018 is to trade several of their free agents to be. Danny Valencia, Steve Cishek, and Dyson fit that description. Hisashi Iwakuma has a club option for next season and Nick Vincent, who is up for arbitration and has been a solid relief option a contending team would be interested in, could also be up for grabs.

Next: Mariners Smiles on Full Display at the All-Star Game

The second half of 2017 is looking like the second half of 2016 already, when the Mariners straddled the line between buying and selling. We’ll see if Dipoto dips his toe in the water or dives in head-first this year one way or the other.