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Mariners: Is Jean Segura’s Breakout 2016 Sustainable?

By Ben Renner

Feb 20, 2017; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Jean Segura (2) poses during photo day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2017; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Jean Segura (2) poses during photo day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 30, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Chris Owings (16) and second baseman Jean Segura (2) and center fielder Socrates Brito (30) and left fielder Brandon Drury (27) celebrate after beating the San Diego Padres 5-3 at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

Can Jean Segura Keep it Going for the Mariners?

Segura is an obvious upgrade over Ketel Marte at shortstop, both at the plate and in the field. His hitting stats all rose to levels he never reached before in 2016. It’s difficult to project 20 home runs or more for a guy whose career-high is 20, and there are only a few players in MLB you can project a batting average over .320 for a season.

Indeed, Segura’s .353 Batting Average of Balls in Play will be difficult to sustain in 2017. It’s safer to aim your projections at somewhere between his career year last season and his career averages, and various projection systems have done just that. ZiPS, Streamer, and Depth Charts all predict between 12 and 13 home runs for Segura in 2017, with a walk rate hovering between four and five percent and a strikeout percentage a tick higher than last season.

Betting on a guy changing uniforms and home ballparks to match a career year is never wise, but if anyone can do it in 2017, I believe it’s Segura.

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He’ll join one of best friends, Robinson Cano, in a lineup that should offer him plenty of protection and opportunities to get pitches to hit. Segura has never been a patient hitter, but his improved plate discipline stats last season point to a possible renaissance. If he continues with his new approach at the plate under the direction of hitting coach Edgar Martinez, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect an On-Base Percentage higher than most project for 2017.

Segura is only 26, when most Major League players reach the prime of their playing careers. Toss in 25 to 30 steals, and even if Segura doesn’t slug .499 like he did last season, he could still be terror for opposing pitchers to face and on the basepaths.

Next: Your Complete Guide to Mariners Spring Training

What are your expectations for Jean Segura in 2017? Which Segura will show up for the Mariners next season?

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