Mariners: Is Jean Segura’s Breakout 2016 Sustainable?

What Will Jean Segura do in a Mariners Uniform?

I don’t see Segura hitting 20 home runs in 2017 while playing half of his games in Safeco Field. That mark truly seems like an outlier. However, a few of Segura’s advanced batting statistics from last season indicate at least some of his success is sustainable, provided he doesn’t slip back into old habits.

I see Segura’s 2016 success as the result of three things: According the FanGraphs, Segura put more balls in the air last season, hit many more line drives, and showed better plate discipline. Maybe Segura’s approach at the plate caught Dipoto’s eye for his ability to “control the zone.”

Ground ball/Fly ball

Jean Segura hit 20 home runs last season because he hit more balls in the air. Ground ball/fly ball ratio can be a good indicator of a hitter’s ability to reach base depending on his ability or inability to run out ground balls or drive fly balls into the gap or over the wall. Segura’s GB/FB ratio last year was 1.91, far lower than 2015’s 2.43 and 2014’s 2.59. Not surprisingly, considering his career-high 20 home runs last season, a significant portion of those fly balls left the yard–13.5% to be exact, up 8.2% from 2015.

Segura not only hit more fly balls in 2016 than he ever has over a full season, a greater percentage of his fly balls flew away for home runs. Also aiding both his batting average and his home run percentage was his line drive percentage.