Mariners: Is Jean Segura’s Breakout 2016 Sustainable?
By Ben Renner
The Mariners upgraded their shortstop situation this offseason by swapping Ketel Marte for Jean Segura. Fresh off a breakout 2016, can Segura continue his success in Seattle?
We’ve talked about how the Jean Segura trade might have been more about Mitch Haniger for the Mariners, but the shortstop’s breakout 2016 may be more sustainable than previously thought. It doesn’t take a statistician to compare Segura’s 2016 numbers with the rest of his career and predict a decline in 2017.
Segura shattered almost every career-high in hitting stats last year (except steals). He hit 20 home runs–his previous career-high was 12, in 2013. He more than doubled his previous career-high in doubles with 41 in 2016, and his 203 hits, most in the National League last year, obliterated his previous career-high of 173. If you were to ignore his previous three full seasons in Major League Baseball with the Milwaukee Brewers and only looked at his 2016 numbers, you would have thought the Mariners nabbed their best shortstop since Alex Rodriguez.
But, as Mariners fans, were are understandably suspicious of breakout years. We’ve seen this movie before. Jeff Cirillo had three-straight .310+ batting average seasons before he was traded to Seattle, where he did nothing. Adrian Beltre, despite playing excellent third base and remaining one of my favorite ex-Mariners, never came close to the 48 home runs he hit in his breakout season with the Dodgers before then-GM Bill Bavasi signed him in 2005.
Segura had a nightmare 2014. First, he rejected a seven-year, $40 million contract extension from the Brewers following his All-Star season in 2013. Then, the unthinkable happened. His nine-month-old son Janniel unexpectedly became seriously ill in the Dominican Republic and died. It’s not something you ever recover from, but Segura credits Robinson Cano with helping him through the tragedy.
In 2016, despite persistent heartbreak, he figured out that swing. There’s reason to believe he can keep it going with the Mariners.