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Mariners: How Injury Prone is Hisashi Iwakuma?

By Ben Renner

Oct 1, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma (18) reacts as pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre (R) and catcher Mike Zunino (L) meet at the mound after Iwakuma gave up four runs against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma (18) reacts as pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre (R) and catcher Mike Zunino (L) meet at the mound after Iwakuma gave up four runs against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma fell one inning shy of the coveted 200 mark last season. Can he stay off the DL in 2017 at age 36?

Mariners nominal number-two starter Hisashi Iwakuma had a successful career for the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in the Japan Pacific League before crossing the ocean to play for the Mariners in 2012. Since then, he’s been a solid piece in the rotation for Seattle, and at times last season, their best pitcher.

Last season was the first time Kuma posted a season ERA over 4.00 in the Major Leagues. His second season in Seattle, 2013, he finished third in American League Cy Young voting and went 14-6 with a stellar 2.66 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 219.2 innings. Wins and losses aren’t the best measure of a pitcher’s true value, but for what it’s worth, Kuma has never posted a losing record in a Mariners uniform.

2016 was the first time Iwakuma made it through an entire season with minimal time spent on the Disabled List since his excellent 2013. So after five seasons in the Major Leagues, Kuma has thrown 852.2 innings, that’s about 171 innings per major league season. And he’s been effective. His MLB record is 63-37 with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and one no-hitter (in 2015).

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How many innings can we expect from Iwakuma in 2017? Kuma turns 36 on April 12th, yet he logged 199 innings in his age-35 season last year. When he first came into the league, he carried the same nagging complaint against almost every Japanese player, especially pitchers, has faced in the MLB: he can’t play a full season. The 162-game MLB schedule is the longest professional baseball league schedule in the world, but that alone doesn’t mean Japanese players can’t hang.

Kuma, though, had a long injury history in Japan. In his final season for Rakuten, he lasted only 119 innings. He went over 200 innings in two of the previous three years, but also had entire seasons nearly wiped out by injury before that.

Nearing age 36 and as an established MLB veteran, Iwakuma is headed for unprecedented territory for him. Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto has shown no shyness in casting around for arms to bolster a rotation that went through 13 different starters last season. James Paxton, who has his own history of injuries, is waiting in the wings to usurp Kuma as the Mariners number-two starter, with newcomers Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo nipping at his heals, too. Dipoto seems to be betting on at least one DL stint for Iwakuma at some point this season, and not without reason.

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I’d be surprised if Iwakuma reaches the 200-innings plateau this year. The question will be: can he be as effective as he has been prior to 2016 when he does take the mound? Kuma’s performance will likely determine just how much the 2017 Mariners improve this season.

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