Can Felix Hernandez Bounce Back in 2017?

Mariners ace Felix Hernandez failed to reach 200 innings last year for the first time in nine seasons. Entering his age-31 season, can Hernandez, who saw a drop in average fastball velocity in 2016, rebound in 2017?

Felix Hernandez was a hard thrower when he entered the league. In 2007, his second full season as a starter for the Mariners, his fastball averaged 96.3 miles per hour (per FanGraphs). Over time, as he’s gotten older and entered his 30s, Hernandez’s fastball velocity has predictably fallen. In 2016, the first season since 2007 in which he hasn’t pitched at least 200 innings, his average fastball velocity was 90.5 MPH.

We’ve seen Felix Hernandez adjust his game over time, sometimes with brilliant results. By 2010, when Hernandez won the Cy Young Award, his average fastball velocity had already dropped almost two MPH in three years. But instead of trying to rush his fastball past batters at a slower speed (a recipe for disaster) in 2010, he relied on his sinker, throwing over 350 more sinkers than fastballs.

Hernandez’s sinker in 2010 wasn’t unhittable. Opponents hit .262 against the pitch, the highest average against any of his pitches (batters hit a mere .190 against his slower fastball in 2010). But it was an effective pitch, and it was Hernandez’s favorite pitch during his Cy Young season because it acted like a fastball with downward movement. It averaged only one MPH slower than his fastball. It looked like a fastball to hitters until they swung right over it or topped to the second baseman.

Felix Hernandez had a perfect mix of pitches to throw in 2010, and their relative velocities complemented each other. Last season, a season in which Hernandez dealt with serious lower body injuries for the first time in his career, batters hit .299 against his sinker, which averaged 90.3 MPH. Hitters were able to handle the pitch, even though it once again had a similar velocity to his fastball.

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Felix Hernandez varied his pitches last season more than he ever had before. His fastball was his fourth-favorite pitch in 2016, after his sinker (752 pitches), his changeup (658), and his curveball (485). Relying on his sinker again this season seems like a bad idea. Hernandez could rebound on his less-than-stellar 2016 by going back to his changeup, which has baffled hitters throughout his career. Opponents have hit only .190 against it in ten seasons.

In 2014, the change was Hernandez’s favorite pitch. He went 15-6 with a league-leading 2.14 ERA and a 0.914 WHIP while striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. He’s lost almost two MPH off of his changeup since then, but if he can figure out how to fool batters again with it and make it look similar to his fastball or sinker, he could be make up for his loss of velocity in 2017 and return to be the ace we know he can be.

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Reports out of Spring Training claim that Felix Hernandez is back stronger and fitter than ever after extensive offseason workouts. If that translates to a tick or two on his fastball and sinker velocity, those pitches, in conjunction with his devastating changeup, might keep enough hitters off balance to precipitate a return to form for the 31-year-old ace. Even if the velocity doesn’t return, expect a new bag of tricks from Hernandez on the mound this year. He’s shown the ability to adapt to his falling velocity before with great results. I predict a bounce-back 2017 from the King.