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Eastern Washington vs Georgetown NCAA Tournament Preview

By James Silberman

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Neither the Washington Huskies nor Washington State Cougars will be representing the state of Washington in the NCAA Tournament. That responsibility is in the hands of a couple of mid-majors: the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Eastern Washington Eagles.

Gonzaga can hardly be called a mid-major at this point, but Eastern Washington is as much a Cinderella as any team in the tournament, dancing in March for only the second time in school history. Lead by the nation’s leading scorer, Tyler Harvey, the Eagles also are as likely as any double-digit seed in the tournament to advance.

Why Eastern Washington Can Win

Tyler Harvey. Tyler Harvey. Tyler Harvey.

The kid who didn’t have a single offer coming out of high school and who was set to be a walk-on at Spokane division III school, Whitworth (shoutout to the Pirates!), is just on another level. He leads the nation in scoring at 22.9 points per game while shooting 47% from the field, 43% from three and 85% from the free throw line, while also adding 3.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.1 steals.

Nov 24, 2014; Bloomington, IN, USA; Eastern Washington Eagles guard Tyler Harvey (1) dribbles the ball in the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall. Eastern Washington Eagles beats Indiana Hoosiers by the score of 86-84. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Washington as a team is the ninth best three-point shooting team in division I at 40.3%, while Georgetown is among the nation’s worst at defending the outside shot at 263rd out of 345 teams. Three point makes allowed was a common theme in Georgetown’s ten losses, as their opponents hit 65-143 (45.5%) from beyond the arc.  Teams getting hot from outside is one of the most common themes among NCAA Tournament upsets.

The other commonality in upsets is winning the turnover margin. The Eagles rank higher than the Hoyas in turnovers given (10.8 to 12.6), turnovers margin (+1.5 to +0.9), albeit against lesser competition.

Also, a common theme among non-upsets is when the higher seeded (and presumable bigger conference) team dominates the mid-major team on the boards. Georgetown definitely will have a size advantage in this game, but as long as Venky Jois, Drew Brandon and Bogdan Bliznyuk can keep the rebound margin close, they will have a chance. In their last four tournament appearances, Georgetown has been eliminated by double digit seeds despite having a +11 rebound margin in those games.

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UCLA transfer Josh Smith is a guy who could seriously hurt the Eagles, but is also a guy who gets into a lot of foul trouble. Smith averages 3.5 fouls per game while playing 21.1 minutes. Two weeks ago, he fouled out against St. Johns in just eight minutes! Both Harvey and Jois are very good at getting to the foul line. Look for them to go right at Josh Smith.

And I know I said it three times already but it needs to be said again. Just like Stephen Curry, C.J. McCollum, Norris Cole, Ali Farokhmanesh, Courtney Lee and so many other mid-major superstars before him, Tyler Harvey is capable of carrying EWU to a NCAA Tournament upset.

Next: #2 Gonzaga vs #15 North Dakota State Tournament Preview

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