The Nelson Cruz Signing, Through The Eyes Of A Home Run
Based on projections available over at FanGraphs, Seattle Mariners DH Nelson Cruz can be reasonably expected to produce a season worth about two wins above replacement level. The projections all call for his home run total to drop by nearly fifteen. The simplest way to say this: the Mariners are openly, publicly portraying Cruz as a superstar while the numbers are saying he’s unlikely to be more than an average contributor.
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We’ve been through this before in regards to Cruz’s skillset. He’s a talented player who, quite obviously, makes his money by wrecking pitched baseballs. He doesn’t run well or play defense at all, and his walk rate isn’t exactly ideal. If the dingers ever go away, there’s a fear that Nelson Cruz will be useless. Reminder: he’s 34 years old, about to start his first of four years under contract, and his new home park is Safeco Field.
Safeco Field is a pretty awful place to hit home runs. The marine air and far-out fences combine to make it one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, and we’ve seen how it can swallow up hitters. Richie Sexson‘s career was ended by this park. Justin Smoak‘s career never took off, potentially in part due to this park. It even affected Robinson Cano‘s power output last year. This place can be a death trap.
Playing baseball in a Mariners uniform for the first time yesterday, Nelson Cruz took a 1-2 Ian Kennedy offering way out past the left field foul pole. The broadcast initially called it a foul, because it just about cleared the pole. But no, it was a homer – his first for the M’s, in his first opportunity.
Peoria isn’t Safeco, but the image of a towering, majestic blast certainly conjured up imagined images of Cruz doing the same in the Emerald City. Which, of course, leads to one imagining Cruz hitting a towering, majestic popout to the warning track. We’ve seen a lot of guys do it before, and the fear is that Cruz would fall victim to the same ol’ curse. Which is why I wanted to remind everyone of this:
This graphic, from Hit Tracker Online, shows where Nelson Cruz’s 2014 home runs landed. That little red line shows the Safeco Field fences. Everyone’s afraid of what Safeco will do to Cruz. But had he played 162 games in Seattle last season, his home run output would have dropped from 40 to… 39. Unless you want to argue that the one on the line would’ve made it out. Then it stays steady at 40.
Cruz’s blast yesterday would have left Safeco Field. It would have left most fields. The real reason to expect less than 40 bombs this year is because 40 is a lot of bombs. He’s unlikely to repeat that number because it would be hard to repeat that number in Yankee Stadium. But he’s unlikely to have his potential successes derailed by Safeco Field. He’s just too strong for that.
Not a lot of guys hit home runs the way Nelson Cruz hits home runs. He blasts them deep, and not just some of them. This was, in my eyes, the biggest reason to target Cruz in the offseason. This is why his signing is less likely to be a dud than many think it will be. Cruz, of all people, seems to have a good shot at beating his projections.
That home run you saw yesterday in spring training? Expect to see a lot more like that in the regular season. The pitch wasn’t thrown hard – 77 miles per hour – and it wasn’t in the middle of the zone. Cruz reached down low for a junky pitch and blasted it over the foul pole. Watch Nelson Cruz hit one pitch out and you’ll swear he could do it to any pitch. That’s an exciting player to have on the Mariners.