Should The Seattle Mariners Sign James Shields?

When the Tampa Bay Rays traded ace right hander James Shields to the Kansas City Royals before the 2013 season, KC was widely lampooned for having overpaid for a pitcher they wanted more than they needed. They were too far away from contention to bother “going for it,” yet they went for it. It was regarded by many as one of the worst deals in recent history.

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Two winning years and one World Series appearance later, Shields’ Royals did well enough to have made it so his name might not forever be attached with the word “overpay.” But it’s not too late for that yet, since Shields currently sits unsigned on the free agent market. Someone could still overpay for him – they’ll just have to use dollars instead of young talent.

Except it might not even come to that. Shields is the top free agent left, in February. He’s lasted on the free market longer than just about anyone who ever went on to sign a significant contract. That doesn’t mean he’ll come Ervin Santana cheap, but any chance he had of getting $100 million is probably out the window. Shields will be had for cheaper than originally assumed.

The Mariners don’t exactly need an ace pitcher. They’ve got at least two of those. But Hisashi Iwakuma is turning 34 soon and is in the last year of his contract. The Mariners don’t need an ace pitcher now, but they might need one a year from now. Which is to say, they might need James Shields right now.

Shields has seen his market stall largely due to his age: he’s 33. But over the course of his career he’s been consistently outstanding, topping 3.5 WAR in seven of his nine MLB seasons. The outliers were his short, 1.7 win rookie campaign and his homer-plagued, 1.7 win 2010. Or to put another way, he’s never had a bad season. At his worst he’s been league average, but he’s almost always twice that good.

His batted ball profile features plenty of grounders, which would make him a good fit in front of Seattle’s talented infielders. But he’s also had an elevated home run rate his whole career, which makes him a doubly good fit for Safeco. The Mariners’ home park would take advantage of one of his biggest strengths while masking one of his biggest weaknesses. Safeco’s a wonderful place to grow old.

Perhaps the biggest question for the Mariners is whether or not it’s worth trading the familiarity of Iwakuma for the track record and one year age advantage of Shields. ‘Kuma has been more or less Shields’ equal since his arrival in MLB, and it’s been long assumed that he’s just another successful season away from re-upping with the M’s. Why sign Shields now when you could sign Iwakuma, or another arm, in a year?

This comes back to depth. The M’s have been applauded on this here site for their recent emphasis on stockpiling high-quality depth. Depth doesn’t only have to come at the bottom of a team, though. The Mariners could have a rotation of Felix Hernandez, Iwakuma, Shields, J.A. Happ, and James Paxton. Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias would open the year in AAA, with Erasmo Ramirez hanging out in the bullpen. That’s an unbelievably deep group, one that assures the M’s would have an elite rotation no matter how many starters go down with injury over the course of the year.

It probably won’t happen, but it’s tantalizing. That’s eight MLB starters, all of whom have the potential to be plenty better than average. Three of them are aces now, with two of them possibly on their way. And then when Iwakuma leaves as a free agent, the M’s don’t have to scramble to find a replacement.

James Shields: Seattle Mariner. The 2015 team gets a boost, the 2016 team gets stability. Mariners Win The World Series. Make it happen, Jack. Shouldn’t even cost that much, relatively speaking.

Oct 21, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game one of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

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