Mariners: Will Nathan Karns for Jarrod Dyson Pay Off?

The Mariners flipped starting pitcher Nathan Karns for Kansas City outfielder Jarrod Dyson last week. What can Dyson bring to the Mariners in 2017?

It’s not easy to quantify howJarrod Dysonhelped the Royals last year without delving into advanced statistics telling you how he could help theMarinersas well. If you’re a baseball nerd like me and you’re looking atDyson’s Fangraphs page, let me direct you to a few key stats: First, advanced fielding. According to Fangraphs, Dyson had 19 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and posted a 16.7 Ultimate Zone Rating, which projected to a 24.8 rating per 150 innings. That’s exceptional for only playing 107 games last year.

(Here’s whatUZR means, and howDRS is calculated.)

Second, Plate Discipline. These numbers likely caught Mariners General ManagerJerry Dipoto‘s eye. Dyson controlled the strikezone well for the Royals last year. He took a hack at only 23.9% of the pitches he saw outside the zone and swung at 66.6% of the pitches he saw inside the strike zone (when you’re supposed to swing). Of those swings he took at strikes, he made contact 93.4% of the time. It’s difficult to throw this guy a strike and create a swing-and-miss. In fact, only 5.1% of the strikes he saw were swinging. Pretty good for a team that has pledged to control the zone.

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Third, a by-product of Jarrod Dyson’s plate discipline: aRoyals team-high on-base percentagelast year of .340. In 107 games played and 337 plate appearances, Dyson slashed .278/.340/.388 and stole 30 bases. He’s a savvy baserunner (which you can see quantified on his Fangraphs page or on Baseball-Reference.com) and a fast outfielder.

But there is some risk involved in the Mariners’ trade. Karns had a down year last season. His 5.15 ERA got him sent to the bullpen, but his Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) was a full run below his ERA at 4.05. He struck out better than a batter per inning (9.6 K/9) but issued 45 walks in only 94.1 innings. It’s possible the Mariners viewed him as a bullpen depth piece this offseason and Royals see him as a club-controlled starter. If you’re like my co-editor Paul Taylor and me, you’re not convinced thatYovani Gallardocan bea solid starter all year, so trading a potentially decent starter like Karns (who posted a 3.67 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2015) is a head-scratcher.

Especially if you receive a speedy, 32-year-old outfielder with a strictly average bat and good defense. Generally, players who rely on their speed as much as Dyson does tend to fall off a cliff when they reach his age and their speed declines. Dyson’s plate discipline and his base-stealing ability (which isn’t entirely due to his speed) could make him an exception to this rule. If Dipoto is right, and Dyson can perform as advertised at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field, the Mariners wrested a valuable player with a cheap contract from Kansas City for a decent but unspectacular arm.

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If he’s wrong, the Mariners traded for the nextChone Figgins. Let’s hope Dyson doesn’t forget how to protect the zone and steal bases in a Mariners uniform. If I had to make a prediction, I’d guess Dyson doesn’t forget and turns in a valuable season for the Mariners in 2017. But I’m a serial optimist. What are your thoughts?

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