Getting To Know The 2015 Seattle Mariners: Bullpen
This is the sixth in a series of posts previewing the 2015 AL West. Previous posts: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners rotation. Next up: Seattle Mariners outfield.
It’s nearly impossible to predict bullpens. Sure, we try, and sometimes we’re right. We’ve been ragging on the Texas Rangers and their collection of apparently awful arms, yet for all we know there could be an unexpected breakout or two in there. The consensus worst ‘pen in the league could turn out just fine. We know this could happen because this kind of thing does happen.
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Things can break the other way too, of course. Good bullpens aren’t guaranteed to be good, because nothing in this world is truly guaranteed. More specifically, it’s because relief pitchers don’t throw very many innings, and the range of possible results gets wider and wider the smaller the sample gets. They’re chaos, and we know this, and we acknowledge this while predicting their effectiveness over a long season.
Sure looks like the Seattle Mariners have a strong bullpen. It’s mostly the same bullpen as last year, except that the second lefty looks better this time around. Is this an improved bullpen? It’s critical to acknowledge that a lot of situational luck went into the successes of the 2014 bullpen. That could happen again, but it’s not a repeatable skill. This bullpen still has a reasonably high floor, and still looks like the division’s finest.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Fernando Rodney poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The closer is a 38-year-old who wears his hat to the side and has recorded at least one save a year since 2003. He’s been worth 6.9 WAR over his career, with 4.8 of that coming over the last three seasons. It doesn’t feel fair to call him a late bloomer since he’s been an established late-inning arm for so long, but this is a guy who is definitely better now than he ever was when he was younger.
Looking back it’s weird that Rodney stuck around in the back of so many bullpens for so many years, given his inability to find the strike zone. Walks suck. Pitchers should try to issue as few walks as possible. In 2011 Rodney walked more batters than he struck out. Then he signed with Tampa Bay as a free agent, “tweaked” his mechanics, and set the all-time ERA record with a tiny 1.81 BB/9.
Rodney’s first season in Tampa Bay was absolutely ridiculous, and yes, his walk rate was near five per nine the next year. But his strikeouts went way up, too, and after he signed with the M’s his strikeouts stayed up there and his walks went down, albeit not to the extreme level of 2012. He’s a good pitcher, and even if he walks too many guys to remain the closer throughout 2015, he should still be serviceable. And the M’s have plenty of options at the back end of the ‘pen.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Danny Farquhar poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
After his incredible 2013 emergence, most foresaw a step back for Farquhar. In actuality it was a mixed bag: his ERA and walk rate improved, though his strikeouts came down as well. Perhaps this is the best way to illustrate the kind of years he’s had with the M’s: his FIP increased by a full run between 2013 and 2014, from 1.86 to 2.86. He went from unfathomable to just plain ol’ excellent.
Farquhar’s the best pitcher in a loaded Mariners bullpen, and we’ve all seen how easily he can handle the ninth. Or the eighth. Or wherever he’s needed! He can pitch multiple frames, too. Dude is amazing. It’s almost a shame that he’s next up for saves if Rodney goes down, since his versatility as a swing man is such a nice toy for Lloyd McClendon to play with.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Charlie Furbush poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The big lefty was Seattle’s “get” in the infamous Doug Fister trade. Or do we call it the first infamous Doug Fister trade? Why does nobody get good value back for Fister, like, ever? Watch him sign a $25 million free agent contract of something. But I digress. Furbush has been here for a while, and he’s good. His left-handedness is another neat perk, though it by no means defines him as it would a specialist.
Furbush keeps his K/9 over 10 with consistency. His fastball hangs out in the low 90’s, and last year he stopped issuing walks. That’s a gain that just might be sustainable, given that he’s got enough deception and movement to allow us to dream on the possibility that he’s just going to miss bats within the zone from now on. Another excellent pitcher, and one who’s been excellent for years.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Tom Wilhelmsen poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Despite a history of command struggles, Wilhelmsen has never posted an FIP over 3.74. But that came last year, in a season where some praised The Bartender as elite and others questioned how good he really was. He seemed to recover well from a borderline-nightmare 2013, but his strikeouts weren’t where they used to be, and he leaned heavily on a .204 BABIP.
He was lucky, in short, and quite lucky at that. But it’s important to note that while Wilhelmsen is certainly not as excellent as his ERA, he was still a good pitcher. He’s more middle reliever than potential closer, but he’s absolutely a useful player to have on the team. And when he goes through stretches of strong command, he’s as good as any of these guys.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Dominic Leone poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Leone’s 23 this season. Last year, as a rookie, Leone struck out 9.5 batters per nine in 66.1 innings. He had Wilhelmsen’s ERA, but with an FIP that lined up a little better. He’s never pitched in AAA, and will look to again spend the whole year at the major league level.
And why wouldn’t he? Leone’s not far from being Farquhar, which is both high and deserved praise. Interestingly, most projections peg him for less strikeouts and a higher ERA this season. The guy is 23 and just had a tremendous rookie showing. Take the over on this one – every sign we’ve got suggests he’s the real deal.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Yoervis Medina poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
This should be Carson Smith‘s spot, but alas, for now it goes to Medina. Maybe we’re picking on the wrong guy here – in 2014 Medina threw 57 innings with a 2.68 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Good numbers, and like most other Mariners relievers we see a gap between the ERA and the FIP. We also see a 4.42 BB/9. That’s bad.
Rodney and Wilhelmsen make up for their wildness by posting big strikeout numbers, and we excuse them for it. Medina’s coming off a 9.47 K/9 season – so why does this guy sketch us out? I guess it’s just that he walks the most guys out of any Mariners reliever, and that’s scary. But he throws hard as hell. Maybe we’re underrating him. Imagine if the walks went away, even a little.
Feb 26, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Tyler Olson poses for a portrait during photo day at Peoria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Last year Olson was pitching at AA, making 22 starts and no relief appearances with a 3.52 ERA/3.19 FIP. Hey look! An ERA/FIP gap, but the good kind! Olson didn’t have the overpowering strikeout numbers, but he did a great job of walking nobody. Now he’s jumping straight to the MLB bullpen, where the hope is he can continue what he started this spring.
Relievers get to throw harder than starters, and because of that they get every opportunity to rack up the strikeouts. Maybe that’ll be Olson. If he falters in the majors he’ll probably get to taste Tacoma. Also worthy of mention is that Olson’s not going to be a one-out, lefty-on-lefty kind of guy. He’ll get to face righties, and he might be used in long relief. Olson’s an unknown, but he’s overflowing with legitimate promise.
Overview
Sep 26, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Fernando Rodney (56) celebrates after the Seattle Mariners defeated the Los Angeles Angels at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Los Angeles 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Best bullpen in the AL West. Almost certainly not the bullpen we saw a year ago, the one that could not and did not do any wrong, but presumably this group should be some kind of awesome. Not good enough to carry the team, but good enough to be a big part of any winning that the M’s should do.
When almost every reliever outperforms their FIP, you’ve got to look at the defense they play in front of. The M’s up-the-middle D is still quite good, even if the outfield corners are unexciting. It’s not enough to explain why most of the relievers outperformed their fielding independent numbers, and so some regression is in order. The same guys will pitch the same this year, but their results will be a little worse. That’s just how it goes.
Even accounting for some regression, the Mariners are better positioned than most teams in the league. They’ve got loads of depth in the high minors should they need it, and the guys in place at the back of the bullpen have all been doing this for years. This group is looking real, real good.