It’s Time To Re-Sign Chris Young
There aren’t very many free agents left on the open market. With the Orioles signing Evereth Cabrera earlier today, Dayan Viciedo is the only remaining position player with even the slightest chance at signing a big league deal. Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano are probably the two best remaining free agents, and they’re relievers. Not a lot left, clearly.
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But there are two more pitchers available who got good results last year. Both of them were Seattle Mariners, actually! One of them is lefty reliever Joe Beimel. The Mariners probably don’t need to sign him, but that’s a topic for a different day (tomorrow). The other is starting pitcher Chris Young. The Mariners should sign him. Right now.
You know Young: he came to town when Randy Wolf (also still a free agent) threw a public temper tantrum at the end of spring training and left the team despite having been offered a spot in the rotation. Young signed the same release clause Wolf refused, noting it was a procedural document, and stepped right into the rotation. Nobody expected much from him. Given his track record, this was excusable.
But then Young pitched more innings than he had since 2007. He limited hits, and took advantage of his home ballpark to turn the fly balls he’d generate into outs. He suppressed homers, as he’s known to do. He didn’t strike anybody out, all while walking a few. He ended the year having thrown 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA, winning himself the AL Comeback Player of the Year award in the process.
So why is Young still available in the second half of February, sitting unsigned in the wake of new deals for Bruce Chen and Barry Zito? The ERA-FIP gap. While Young kept runs off the board, he did so with what looks to have been a tremendous amount of luck. His FIP, which is based on strikeouts, homers, and walks – the three things a pitcher has the most control over – was a horrid 5.o2.
By one popular measure, Young was an excellent starting pitcher. By another, he was terrible. ERA is better than FIP at showing what just happened, but FIP is better at showing what’s going to happen going forward. Steamer projects Young for a 5.18 ERA next year, essentially expecting him to maintain his strikeout/walk deficiencies while losing the luck that allegedly propelled his 2014.
But here’s the thing about Young: he’s always been like this. Since he entered the league in 2004 he’s survived by beating his FIP, routinely getting better results than you’d expect from a pitcher with his peripherals and velocity. His height helps, to be sure. His love for the top of the strike zone is another weapon that he knows how to use. Young may not be 3.65 good, but he’s certainly not 5.02 bad, either.
The disparity between process and results has essentially destroyed Young’s market, and at this point it looks like he’s going to have to suck it up and settle for the same contract that way less effective pitchers are signing: minor league deal, invite to spring training, maybe a million bucks or so if he breaks camp with a team. It’s unfair, but it’s also a little expected. Young presented a tough enough case that nobody could figure out to do with him. Like it or not, he’s going to have to prove himself, again.
Should Seattle be the team to give him a chance? Yes, absolutely. If he’s willing to come to camp with the M’s, he should be given the chance to pitch in big league spring training. Since nobody else will give him a roster spot, maybe he decides he’s okay returning to the place where he enjoyed such strong, recent success as part of a winning team.
As a 2015 Mariner, Young would be quite unlikely to start in the MLB rotation. But if he’s okay being the next man up from AAA, he’d make a deep and talented Tacoma team all the better. The Mariners, with Young in AAA, would be overflowing with MLB rotation talent. Remember, there was no spot on the M’s for Young last year until guys got hurt and he was suddenly a cog. Things happen. Always count on things happening.
The Mariners should swoop in and sign Chris Young. He’s got no market right now, and should be available on a minor league deal. If someone gets hurt he can step up and benefit from Safeco Field again. If nobody gets hurt then he’s as good a piece of depth as anybody could be. The time is right, the price is right. Chris Young. Let’s do this, again.