Super Bowl 51: Three Unpopular Predictions

The Patriots Have the Matchup Advantage in Super Bowl 51

Before I go on, I want to make it abundantly clear that I hope I’m wrong.

But the Patriots are the likely victors of Super Bowl 51 because, as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pointed out in one of his extremely detailed and well-thought-out articles, they match up well with Atlanta.

The Patriots match up as well with the Falcons as the Seahawks matched up well with the Broncos four years ago. For the Falcons to win, they’ll have to create pressure on Tom Brady. That’s an obvious statement and not at all unpopular. The problem is, they won’t. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn installed a similar defense in Atlanta to the one he helped create in Seattle. It’s all about creating pressure with the front four and relying on a cover three shell with either zone or man coverage underneath.

I want to make it abundantly clear that I hope I’m wrong.

Quinn’s Falcons have deviated from that model a bit this year, but the core concept is about the same. Since the playoffs began, the Falcons have blitzed more than they did in the regular season and have gotten more success pressuring quarterbacks. Vic Beasley, Atlanta’s stud defensive end who led the league in sacks with 15.5, hasn’t been the one racking up the hits and pressures, either. It’s been the blitzes and coverages that Quinn and Falcons’ defensive coordinator Richard Smith have dialed up, along with a matchup against the worst offensive line in the NFL in the Divisional Round.

But you can’t blitz Brady. You just can’t. Over the past three seasons, as Barnwell points out, Brady has posted a 92.2 QBR and an 113.6 passer rating, both tops in the league. This year, he threw 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions against the blitz while only taking two sacks. Two.

I predict that Patriots right tackle Marcus Cannon will delay Beasley enough coming around the edge to allow Brady, who, over the past three seasons, has taken an average of 2.32 seconds to throw the ball after it’s snapped, enough time to throw. Take away the ability to pressure Brady and you take away one of the few ways the Falcons can stop him.

My score prediction: Patriots 35, Falcons 20.