Mariners: Just How Good is the Pitching?

The Mariners’ recent home debacle against those pesky Twins made me wonder just how good their pitching has been this season. I decided to do some digging.

As I watched the Mariners drop another home game on the third-straight poor starting pitching performance to the AL Central cellar-dwelling Minnesota Twins, I wondered how much of their recent success was buttressed by their offense. If the Mariners have a good offense, a decent bullpen, and a mediocre starting rotation, will that be enough to succeed in October?

This thought caused me worry because usually teams that make the postseason with a mediocre starting rotation don’t advance very far. The Kansas City Royals last year won it all on a good offense, a lights-out bullpen, and a good rotation that got better as the season went on. The Toronto Blue Jays, however, couldn’t overcome their rotation’s shortcomings even after acquiring David Price at the trade deadline.

My feelings, along with many other Mariners fans on Twitter, were captured most appropriately by Mike McDonnell Jr.:

Is Nathan “Five Innings” Karns really our best pitcher right now? How far has the once vaunted starting rotation fallen?

Let’s look at the numbers. Before I dive into ERA’s, let us remind ourselves, Mariners faithful, that while this 2016 team is better than most recent squads, it is not perfect. It has flaws, as most teams do. There are many more challenges awaiting us this year, so let’s not write them off just yet.

Mariners starters were awful this weekend against the worst offensive team in the American League. Felix Hernandez gave up a season-worst six runs on Friday night, Wade Miley allowed three home runs and five runs on Saturday, and Taijuan Walker got pulled Sunday after allowing five runs in 4.1 innings. He left with the bases loaded.

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After the disasters of the Twins series, the Mariners starters’ ERA this season is 4.02. So far this season, the Mariners have thrown out an average starter every day. Four runs every nine innings won’t kill you, but it might not win you the World Series, either. However, mix in a bullpen that owns a 2.63 ERA as a unit, and you have the best pitching staff in the American League.

It’s true. The Mariners don’t have a stellar rotation, but as a team, they have allowed the fewest hits, runs, and earned runs in the American League. After the battering that the Mariners pitchers took over the weekend, they still have only allowed 53 home runs on the season, the fifth-fewest in the league. Their team Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), normally a good indicator if current pitching performances are sustainable or not, is 3.91, suggesting their team ERA could rise, but not necessarily a scary amount.

Next: Mariners Swept at Home--Again

The offense has been effective this season. It will hurt from the absences of Leonys Martin and Ketel Marte, no doubt, but it’s third in the league in runs scored–second in home runs. (And they continue to scare opponents by releasing footage like this). Combined with a good pitching staff overall, at least with a plus bullpen, the Mariners will be okay. When/if the games start to tighten up in the playoffs, we still have King Felix for the big games. You know he can’t wait to step into the spotlight. Now if only they can beat those damn Twins…