Mariners Position Primer: Starting Pitcher

The Mariners website lists eight starting pitchers in contention for the rotation, who will make the final five and what can we expect from Mariners starting pitching in 2016?

With Spring Training under way, competitions are heating up. For the Mariners, one of the hottest position battles is for the right to take the mound every five days. Here are the eight pitchers vying for spots in the rotation in Peoria this season:

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Okay, first, we can lock in King Felix, Kuma, Miley, and probably Walker for the starting rotation. That’s four of the five spots locked up. But there are still factors of intrigue with the rotation heading into the season for two main reasons: One, Kuma and Paxton have long injury histories and could open up rotation slots for whoever is left out when the team breaks camp. And two, the competition for that final spot will be fierce.

Let’s start with the injury concerns. Jerry Dipoto intentionally loaded up on starting pitchers in part because he knows how difficult it is for pitchers to stay healthy. He acquired Wade Miley, a portrait of health, and only swooped in on Kuma after his deal with the Dodgers fell through. He added Nate Karns for extra depth in the rotation. You can never have too many starters. It’s unlikely that Montgomery or Nuno will break camp as the number 5 starter, but if/when Kuma, Walker, Paxton, or even the King miss extended time, they can be useful plug-ins. If someone hurts themselves during Spring Training, Nuno and Montgomery will crack the rotation at the start of the season.

Assuming Taijuan Walker takes the number 4 spot behind Hernandez, Iwakuma, and Miley, that leaves four pitchers vying for one spot. James Paxton appears to be the front-runner, since he has shown promise before and appears to be developing into a solid starter if he can stay healthy. If we also assume that Vidal Nuno and Mike Montgomery are headed for long relief or AAA Tacoma, Paxton’s only real competition for the spot is Nate Karns.

New Mariners starter Nate Karns Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

And Karns is formidable competition. In his first full season last year, Karns struck out 145 batters in 147 innings. That’s 8.9 K/9. Karns started 26 games in 2015 and gave up 19 home runs. If a few of those fly balls fall short of the fence, especially in the friendly confines of Safeco Field, we can expect a better ERA and FIP (Field-Independent Pitching) from him in 2016. He posted a 3.67 ERA and a 4.09 FIP in 2015. Paxton has shown potential for the Mariners in recent years, but if Karns has a good spring, he could supplant Paxton at least at the start of the year.

Next: Don't Temper Expectations for Cano

One sneaky aspect of this 2016 Mariners team is the depth of their starting rotation. The bullpen will be crucial, as will improved outfield defense, to the success of the team, but as the season wears on, the starting rotation with its eight names will be useful in 2016. Let’s see how it shakes out.

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