Calculating the Seattle Mariners Playoff Chances

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Sep 17, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners starter James Paxton (65) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Records With Scheduled Starters

If you take the Mariners’ winning percentage when James Paxton starts, and average it with the Angels’ losing percentage when C.J. Wilson starts, you get the chance that the Mariners win tonight’s game against the Angels. Then do the same thing for tommorow’s game and each of the Oakland-Texas games.

(.583+.480)/2= .532 or 53.2% chance that James Paxton beats C.J. Wilson tonight.

(.636+.536)/2= .586 or 58.6% chance that Felix Hernandez beats Cory Rasmus tomorrow night.

(.800+.467)/2= .633 or 63.3% chance that Derek Holland beats Jeff Samardzija tonight.

(.346+.452)/2= .399 or 39.9% chance that Nick Martinez beats Sonny Gray tomorrow night.

(.532)x(.586)x(.633)x(.399)= .0787 or 7.87% chance the Mariners make the playoffs.