Calculating the Seattle Mariners Playoff Chances

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Sep 2, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) hits a two run home run against the Oakland Athletics during the fifth inning at Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Home/Road Records

By taking the average of the Mariners’ home winning % and the Angels’ road losing %, we get the Mariners chances of winning any given home game against Anaheim. Then divide that by 2 because they have to win twice. Then do the same thing for the Rangers and Athletics and multiply the two answers together.

(.494+.418)/2= .456 or 45.6% chance that the Mariners win tonight against the Angels.

.456/2= .228 or 22.8% chance that the Mariners win their final two games against the Angels.

(.405+.494)/2= .45 or 45% chance that Oakland loses tonight against the Rangers.

.45/2= .225 or 22.5% chance that Oakland loses their final two games against Texas.

(.228)x(.225)= .0513 or a 5.13% chance that the Mariners make the playoffs.