Calculating the Seattle Mariners Playoff Chances

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Sep 26, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners right fielder Michael Saunders (55) and first baseman Logan Morrison (20) celebrate after Saunders hit a 2-run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners trail the Oakland A’s by two games with two games remaining. The Mariners playoff chances are definitely small. But how small?

Assuming the games are all 50/50, the Mariners would have a 6.25% chance of advancing. But baseball is the game of numbers, so I’m about to go all Michael Smith on you.