If the Seattle Mariners score four runs per game, they will make the playoffs. Easy enough, right?
We love statistics in sports, particularly a baseball culture that has fallen in love with sabermetrics over the last few years. Analysts and experts are always playing the role of amateur statistician and looking for key correlations.
I heard a statistic on the Mariners broadcast a few night ago. The statistic was that when the Mariners score four or more runs, they are 44-10. That may have changed in the last few days.
That statistic makes sense, particularly for a team that has strong pitching and an offense that can sometimes take the night off. Granted, it also sounds like something John Madden would have said back in the day.
(In Madden voice) “See, what this team is trying to do is, score more runs than the other team so that they can win.” Awesome analysis, Mr. Madden.
Now, knowing statistics and being able to do anything about them are two different things. However, it is good to know that the Mariners don’t have to score 10 runs a game. The 11-1 pounding of the Toronto Blue Jays the other night was a lot of fun, but from the standpoint of this particular statistic, it may have been overkill.
Obviously this statistic is also assuming that the Mariners can maintain their current level of effectiveness from the mound. The pitching, led by Felix Hernandez, has been so good that fans may be starting to take the starters and the stingy bullpen for granted.
Four runs, Mariners. That is all you need. Just four little runs and you will probably do just fine down the stretch.